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How The Forecast Works

A plain-language explanation of how we turn weather, tides, light, lunar timing, and pressure into a daily fishing view.

In short Each forecast hour gets a fishing score. The best-scoring hours become the day’s best and backup windows.
Signals used Tide, solunar timing, moon phase, dawn/dusk light, wind, rain, temperature, and barometric pressure trend.

What decides the best fishing times?

The app gives every forecast hour a fishing score. That score is rule-based and explainable rather than a black box. The highest scoring period becomes the day’s best window, and the next strong period becomes the backup window.

What goes into the score?

  • Tide state
  • How close the hour is to a tide change
  • Major and minor solunar periods
  • Moon phase strength
  • Dawn and dusk light
  • Wind direction for the chosen spot
  • Wind strength and gusts
  • Rain risk
  • Temperature
  • Barometric pressure trend

How do tides affect the score?

Tide is one of the strongest signals. Rising tide currently scores better than low tide at our Sydney test locations, and hours close to a tide turn get an extra lift.

How do solunar periods affect the score?

The model calculates classic major and minor solunar windows from lunar transit, underfoot, moonrise, and moonset events. Major periods score higher than minor periods, and new or full moon can strengthen them further.

How do wind and rain affect the score?

Wind direction is judged relative to the spot, because some banks and bay edges handle certain winds better than others. Strong or gusty wind reduces the score, and high rain risk also applies a penalty.

Are we using barometric pressure?

Yes. The score now includes barometric pressure, but it cares more about pressure movement than the absolute number. Rising pressure helps, falling pressure hurts, and stable healthy pressure can add a small bonus.

What pressure information is used?

We store the forecast pressure for each hour and also the change over the previous three hours. That three-hour trend is what we mainly use in the score.

Is this a guarantee that fish will bite?

No. This is a guidance tool, not a promise. Water clarity, bait, swell, season, species behaviour, and lure choice can all make a real difference on the day.

Current scoring philosophy

The current model is intentionally transparent and easy to tune. It combines:

tide + light + solunar + moon phase + tide-change + wind-direction + temperature + pressure − wind penalty − rain penalty

The result is clipped into a practical display range so the app avoids fake extremes.

Source notes

Weather and tide data can come from WillyWeather or Open-Meteo depending on backend configuration. Pressure is currently supplemented from Open-Meteo when using the WillyWeather weather endpoint because that endpoint does not expose hourly pressure in the way we need.